AGP Executive Report

Gulf Condemnations: GCC chief Jasem Albudaiwi and Qatar’s foreign ministry both condemned renewed Iranian attacks on Jordan and Kuwait as violations of sovereignty and a dangerous escalation. Jordan Air Defense: Jordan said it intercepted and destroyed five Iranian missiles, while Iran’s IRGC claimed it hit Jordan’s al-Azraq base and damaged three US F-35 jets. US-Iran Escalation: The US said it carried out a “powerful” wave of strikes targeting IRGC command, missile and drone sites after attacks on American forces; Iran vowed to “punish” Washington and warned allies. Regional Spillover: Drone attacks sparked fires at Egypt’s Damietta port, with Egypt blaming an unidentified drone and saying operations continued; Kuwait said an Iranian attack hit a Chinese company building, killing one worker. Diplomacy Attempts: Pakistan said it is working to revive US-Iran talks under the Islamabad MoU as the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile. Public Mood in the US: Polls show Americans increasingly doubt the war’s value, with only about a third saying it’s worthwhile and Trump’s Iran-war handling approval slipping.

Iran-US Escalation: Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces as the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers, while explosions were reported in southern Iran including Qeshm and Abu Musa. New U.S. Strikes: After a brief lull, CENTCOM said the U.S. launched “powerful” strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for the Jordan base attack, with Trump warning Iran would be hit “very hard.” Iraq Fallout: Iraq condemned the U.S.-Saudi strikes as a violation of sovereignty, as Iran-linked groups traded blame over drone attacks tied to Saudi energy facilities. Hormuz Pressure & Shipping: The conflict keeps focus on the Strait of Hormuz and maritime disruption, with reports of U.S. blockade enforcement and new sanctions aimed at insurers and vessels. Regional Diplomacy: Kuwait and Jordan’s top diplomats discussed maritime safety and stability amid the flare-up. Markets & Policy: Oil jumped on renewed fighting, while the Fed held rates steady despite inflation pressure from the war. Turkey Watch: Trump backed a potential F-35 sale to Türkiye despite Israeli objections.

Iran-U.S. Escalation: Iran launched a “surprise” ballistic missile barrage at U.S. forces in the Middle East; CENTCOM says all missiles were intercepted, while the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters, as Jordan reported intercepting five missiles aimed at its territory. Regional Backlash: Iran condemned the U.S.-Saudi strikes as violations of Iraq’s sovereignty, while the GCC and Egypt and Qatar backed Saudi Arabia and Jordan after attacks on oil facilities and cross-border threats. Air-Defense Upgrade: Reuters reports Iran is set to receive up to 400 Chinese MANPADS within weeks, boosting short-range defenses amid the war. Security at Home Front: CENTCOM warned troops that cellphone videos and social posts can give Iran near real-time targeting clues, with some personnel in Jordan facing possible phone restrictions. Energy Shock: Oil jumped sharply after Trump vowed the U.S. will “hit Iran hard,” and SABIC warned war-linked supply-chain disruptions cut revenue and output. Diplomacy & Trade: Türkiye and Iraq signed multiple agreements, while Türkiye expands its border security wall along the Iranian frontier and boosts regional cooperation.

US-Iran Escalation: CENTCOM says Iran launched an “attempted surprise attack” with multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East; all were intercepted, shattering a brief lull. US-Saudi Retaliation in Iraq: Hours earlier, U.S. and Saudi forces carried out joint precision strikes in eastern Iraq against Iran-aligned groups, citing more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks and warning of further action if attacks continue. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Oman-backed Gulf talks on a voluntary fees scheme face resistance as Iran warns it will block vessels tied to compensation from frozen assets and rejects returning to the pre-war transit status quo. Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump met Netanyahu at the White House amid Iran nuclear concerns and strained ties, while the Senate advanced a Russia and Iran sanctions bill in a bipartisan procedural vote. Regional Spillover: Türkiye and Iraq signed five agreements to deepen strategic cooperation, while Saudi Arabia announced a “new Muslim” conversion card service and reported a major crackdown on residency violations. Energy Markets: Oil rebounded after the missile-interception news, with Brent around $86 as investors weigh renewed risk to shipping through the region.

US-Iran Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump says “very friendly” talks with Iran are under way after a strike pause, but warns “strong military action” could resume if negotiations fail; Iran denies direct talks while both sides keep sending mixed signals. Strait of Hormuz: Oman is pushing a Gulf-backed plan for a joint regional mechanism to manage Hormuz, including voluntary fees, as Iran, Oman and Saudi discuss restoring safe navigation and ending disruption to one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Regional Fallout in Iraq: Iran-linked drone attacks hit Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, while OIC and Somalia condemn attacks on Saudi Arabia; Saudi also blames Iran-backed militias for drone strikes on its oil facilities. Israel-Iran Escalation: Israel’s Katz says Israel wants to strike Iranian energy facilities but claims the US position blocks it, ahead of Netanyahu’s first White House meeting with Trump since the Iran war began. Kuwait-Egypt Coordination: Kuwait’s Amir speaks with Egypt’s Sisi, with Egypt reaffirming solidarity and support for Kuwait’s security. Saudi Digital Services & Egypt Entrepreneurship: Saudi automates conversion to Islam via a digital “New Muslim” card; Egypt rises five places in the Global Entrepreneurship Index. Turkey Economic Push: Türkiye offers 10-year grants for SME digital/green transformation and backs productivity model factories.

US-Iran War Pause: Trump says the US halted strikes to give “very deep” talks another chance, but warns “strong military action” if negotiations fail; Iran denies direct talks while saying messages move via mediators and insists it will not let Washington dictate the war’s end. Casualties and Records: Pentagon updates report 624 US personnel wounded and revise fatality categories, adding fuel to disputes over how the conflict’s toll is counted. Maritime Flashpoints: Iran warns the US against attacking vessels in its coastal waters, while Iran’s stance on Hormuz remains rigid; meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis are pushing to “copy” Iran’s Hormuz-style pressure by targeting Bab al-Mandeb shipping, raising fears of a wider Red Sea choke. Regional Attacks Despite Lull: Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks as the strike pause holds, and Saudi says it intercepted drones from Iraq-linked Iran-backed groups. Energy Shock: Oil slid about 1% as markets priced in a pause, but risks persist after a major fire at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery following drone strikes. Public Backlash in the US: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds only 1 in 3 Americans support the Iran war, with many saying Trump hasn’t clearly explained goals. Diplomatic Friction: Iran blames Bulgaria for hosting US Air Force refuelling aircraft, escalating legal and UN-law arguments.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they stopped six vessels trying to transit via unapproved routes, turning them back with warning shots, as Tehran insists it still controls the strait. Saudi-Iraq Drone Attacks: Saudi Arabia reported intercepting and destroying drones launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias, targeting oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh, and urged Baghdad to stop Iraq being used as a launchpad. US-Iran Pause and Munitions Debate: The US suspended strikes near Hormuz after 13 straight days, citing limits of the campaign and concerns about interceptor shortages; meanwhile, US officials blamed depleted munitions on the Biden administration and said the shortage isn’t stopping operations. Regional Markets React: Gulf stocks rose on hopes of a diplomatic off-ramp, while oil slid sharply as traders priced in easing supply disruption risk. Diplomacy Signals: Iran said it is not seeking US talks and that any war timing is up to Tehran, while Oman mediation efforts continue alongside reports of indirect exchanges. US Casualties Update: The Pentagon revised its Iran-war casualty tracking, putting US personnel wounded at 624.

US-Iran Pause, Hormuz Talks: The US halted its near two-week Iran strike campaign for a second straight day as Iran said it will refrain from retaliation while Washington holds its pause; mediators including Oman are pushing a Strait of Hormuz arrangement, and shipping remains low but not fully shut. Oil Markets: Brent and WTI slid about 5% in Asian trade on easing fears, with fewer than 10 commodity vessels reportedly passing Hormuz daily over the weekend. Red Sea Pressure: Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations, pushing down Bab el-Mandeb traffic and raising the risk of wider disruption even as the Gulf lull holds. Diplomacy vs. Conditions: Iran’s foreign ministry said messages with the US continue through mediators, but “conditions for negotiations” are absent, while Iran warned the Strait can’t be used to threaten its security. Pentagon Casualty Reporting: The Pentagon created a new “Overseas Operations” category, separating some Iran-war deaths and injuries, after reporting changes drew scrutiny. Regional Politics: The Arab League warned the region is nearing a “moment of explosion” ahead of Trump-Netanyahu talks, tying tensions to the Palestinian deadlock.

US-Iran De-escalation: Trump ordered a pause in US strikes after nearly two weeks, citing adviser concerns over depleted air-defense munitions and escalation risks, while the naval blockade stayed in force. Maritime Pressure: CENTCOM said it redirected 12 commercial vessels and disabled/boarded tankers trying to breach the blockade, including M/T Lavine and M/T Charminar. Hormuz Tensions: Iran reported a tanker explosion after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, alleging the ship deviated from Iran’s route; Iran also said it made “productive” progress with Oman on safe passage mechanisms. Mediation Effort: Pakistan and Qatar stepped up messages between Washington and Tehran after both sides responded to a de-escalation formula, with a fragile pause hanging on. Caspian Sea Fallout: Iran warned Ukraine “will not go unanswered” after a reported Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial ship killed one and injured three, as Zelensky accused Russia of aiding Iran. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s FM spoke by phone with Kuwait’s counterpart on de-escalation and Gulf security. Energy & Markets: Oil prices stayed volatile as the conflict spread to the Red Sea and Caspian while the Gulf saw a lull.

US-Iran De-escalation: Trump shelved plans for wider Iran strikes after advisers warned that Patriot interceptor stockpiles are dwindling, raising risks for US troops and Gulf partners. Maritime Pressure: CENTCOM says the US naval blockade remains in full effect, disabling non-compliant tankers and redirecting 12 vessels trying to breach Iran-bound routes. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran says its forces stopped four ships trying to cross the strait via a southern route; the US also disabled a tanker after repeated warnings. Diplomatic Push: AP reports US airstrikes paused while talks advance, but both sides keep threatening escalation. Caspian Sea Fallout: Iran summoned Ukraine’s diplomats after Kyiv-linked strikes on an Iranian commercial ship killed a sailor; Tehran urged the EU and UN to act. Humanitarian Fallout: FAO warns the Iran war is prolonging hunger and driving up food prices, with hundreds of millions still at risk. Regional Ripples: Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations as the US held off on Iran strikes; Italy canceled flights to Israel amid the wider security squeeze. Public Backlash: Katy Perry condemned the White House for using her “Firework” song in an Iran-strike TikTok.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran says it had a “peaceful night” after nearly two weeks of U.S. strikes, while the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea remain tense and sirens sounded in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Maritime Security: Egypt’s FM urged an immediate halt to military actions and stressed freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea in calls with Iran and Oman. Yemen–Saudi Fallout: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi rejected a military solution to Yemen and called for dialogue as Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on southern Saudi cities after strikes on Hodeida. Caspian Sea Spillover: Ukraine said it struck a Russian warship and vessels tied to Iran-linked military cargo in the Caspian Sea. Regional Politics & Economy: UN warns the 2026 Middle East crisis could worsen women’s employment across Arab states; Beond plans new premium European routes to Saudi’s Red Sea resort airport; Iraq will host the 4th Arab SMEs Summit in Baghdad in November.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran says it hit US assets in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait after Washington’s latest strikes, while the US reports disabling another merchant vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports; fighting keeps widening around the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s Iran Strategy: Trump tells reporters talks are ongoing and Iran is “more serious,” but also says the US is “locked and loaded” for possible further strikes, with “exit strategies” including a heavier military push. Air Force One Security: Multiple reports say a credible Iranian-proxy threat led Trump to switch aircraft during/after a NATO summit in Turkey, with the Secret Service urging the change. Jordan’s Shift: Analysis highlights how Jordan, long relatively spared, has become a more direct target as the war spreads. Yemen Red Sea Fallout: Saudi-led coalition strikes hit Hodeidah as Houthis vow escalation, while oil and shipping risks rise. Saudi Nuclear Deal: Concerns grow over proliferation risks in the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement, amid Trump’s push to tie it to Saudi normalization with Israel. UN Rights Chief: The UN General Assembly renews Volker Türk’s mandate as human rights chief despite US and Israeli opposition.

US-Iran Escalation: The 13th straight night of US strikes ended as drones hit Irbil and Bahrain sounded sirens; Iran says it struck US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, while the IRGC warns civilians to stay 500m from sites hosting US troops. Red Sea Pressure & Oil Shock: Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers pushed oil above $100, with Brent and bond yields jumping as markets price longer disruption. Diplomatic Moves: Germany cut embassy services in Tehran and urged citizens to leave; Egypt pilots a digital visa-on-arrival system from Aug. 1; China’s Wang Yi met Egypt’s FM to deepen ties. Sanctions & Tech Controls: US Treasury sanctioned Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas-linked networks; the US blacklisted 130 research entities in China, Russia and Iran. Regional Politics: Turkey’s main opposition CHP split deepened as Özgür Özel quit to form a new party, while Iraq denied a report that it delivered a US ceasefire proposal to Tehran. EU Rights Crackdown: The EU sanctioned Iranian judges and a cyber repression figure as Tehran intensifies domestic crackdown.

US-Iran Escalation: CENTCOM says US forces launched strikes for a 13th straight night, aimed at curbing IRGC threats to commercial shipping, as Iran reports explosions near Qeshm and other southern sites and claims interceptions; Regional Air Defenses: Kuwait’s air defenses intercepted “hostile Iranian drone threats,” with reports of drone strikes hitting the Al-Salem base and damage at the Abdali border crossing; War Powers Fight in Washington: The US House passed a resolution to end Iran war hostilities unless Congress approves, with four Republicans joining Democrats, while the Senate blocked a similar measure; Shipping Shock and Oil: Houthis’ Red Sea tanker attacks and wider chokepoint fears pushed Brent above $100, while Trump warned damages to ships would be paid from frozen Iranian funds; UK-Iran Tensions: Britain said it is ready 24/7 after Iran’s IRGC threatened RAF Fairford over US bomber operations; Nuclear Deal Watch: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a landmark civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, drawing renewed proliferation concerns; Iraq-Iran Outreach: Iraqi PM Zaidi visited Tehran and Iraq and Iran signed four cooperation documents to deepen ties.

Red Sea Escalation: Houthis claimed they hit two Saudi oil tankers, Encelia and Layla, as Trump warned of “major military punishment” for Iran if attacks continue, while the AU condemned the strikes and Pakistan and Saudi partners reiterated solidarity. Iran-US War Pressure: Jordan and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, and Iran-linked strikes hit the Abdali border crossing linking Iraq and Kuwait as the US carried out its 12th straight night of strikes. Nuclear Deal Politics: The US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement drew fresh backlash, with Trump adding a condition that Saudi normalize Israel ties, and lawmakers warning it could fuel proliferation. Diplomatic Fallout: Britain withdrew remaining diplomats from Iran and urged against travel as tensions spike. Regional Trade Workarounds: Iran and Pakistan agreed to boost truck trade to 2,000 vehicles per day to ease pressure from Hormuz disruptions. Security Concerns Beyond the Gulf: US intelligence is probing whether Russia helped Iran drone attacks on CIA-linked facilities in the region. Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices pushed toward $100 as shipping risks widen and Gulf states look at pipeline reroutes.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched its 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, saying the goal is to reduce threats to civilian mariners as Trump vowed to destroy “one bridge or power plant” for every Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Deterrence Posture: Iran’s foreign minister and senior officials warned of an “eye for an eye” response and said any infrastructure attack would trigger decisive retaliation, while Iran’s health ministry put civilian deaths at 53 since late June. Regional Shipping Shock: Oil prices jumped to a six-week high as Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted and Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears of a wider chokepoint crisis. Diplomatic Fallout: The UK temporarily withdrew embassy staff from Iran and warned of high arrest risks, while Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones. Nuclear Deal Pivot: In a major Gulf shift, the US and Saudi Arabia signed a civilian nuclear cooperation pact that could enable uranium enrichment after safeguards review, drawing proliferation concerns. Pakistan-Iran Ties: Pakistan and Iran discussed reviving the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight rail corridor to boost trade and connectivity.