AGP Executive Report

Iran Funeral Fallout: Tehran held mass funeral prayers for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Grand Mosalla, drawing hundreds of thousands and top officials, while his designated successor Mojtaba Khamenei stayed away amid security concerns; mourners and speakers renewed “Death to America” and “Revenge” calls as Iran’s leadership appeared publicly. US-Iran Tensions: Trump told Axios he could eliminate Iran’s remaining leadership “one shot” during the funeral, prompting a sharp Iranian Embassy rebuttal over “civilisation, history and honour,” as talks are expected to pause during mourning. Diplomatic Next Step: Reports say the next US-Iran talks are likely in Pakistan on July 11, focusing on sanctions, frozen assets and the nuclear file. Egypt-EU Support: Egypt expects €1.5bn (of a €5bn package) from the EU in coming days, with the broader 7.4bn-euro deal aimed at stabilizing amid regional shocks. Saudi Economy: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector activity rose to a four-month high in June, driven by domestic demand despite weaker exports. UAE-UK Connectivity: Air Arabia launched a double daily Sharjah–London Gatwick service, boosting travel and business links. Türkiye Growth & Policy: Türkiye unveiled a 2026-2029 National Green Finance Strategy and reported record agricultural output of $83.2bn in 2025. Regional Security Tech: Israel confirmed it deployed Iron Dome in the UAE during the Iran war, after Netanyahu’s call with Abu Dhabi.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Egypt urged Washington and Tehran to keep momentum on their memorandum, as the US pauses nuclear talks during Ali Khamenei’s funeral week. Regional Pressure: Turkey’s Erdogan accused Israel of trying to “dynamite” the US-Iran deal and warned against renewed regional bloodshed, while also pushing deeper Turkey-Pakistan cooperation. Next Talks Set: Reports say US-Iran negotiations are slated to resume in Pakistan on July 11, focusing on sanctions, frozen assets and the nuclear file. Iran Funeral Politics: Iran is holding days of mass mourning for Khamenei, with hardline messaging and security warnings amid fears of attacks during large gatherings. Gulf Security: Kuwait called for firm UN action after Iranian attacks on its territory and airspace, blaming Iran for the escalation. Egypt Sports & Politics: Egypt beat Angola in basketball qualifiers and, in football, advanced to the World Cup last 16 after a penalty win over Australia, with the coach dedicating the victory to Palestinians. Turkey-Pakistan Trade Push: Erdogan and Sharif pledged to lift bilateral trade toward $5bn, highlighting energy, transport, defense and digital cooperation.

Iran Funeral & US-Iran Talks: Iran has begun week-long state funeral rites for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with mass crowds, foreign delegations, and chants of “Revenge” and “Death to America,” while the US says it paused negotiations for a week to let the ceremonies proceed. Regional Security—Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned Britain and France against any multinational military mission in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the waterway is not a “military parade ground” for extra-regional powers. Yemen File: Analysis warns a US-Iran deal could embolden Yemen’s Houthis because the framework reportedly avoids linking Tehran’s support for regional militias to the talks. Egypt World Cup Breakthrough: Egypt beat Australia 4-2 on penalties to reach the World Cup Round of 16 for the first time, with Mohamed Salah backing the historic run and the team dedicating the win to Palestinians. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia tightened rules on non-Saudi property ownership. Yemen-Saudi Tensions: A Saudi-led coalition vowed “unprecedented force” against any attempt to target Saudi Arabia or violate Yemen’s sovereignty.

World Cup Shock: Egypt beat Australia 4-2 on penalties in Dallas to reach the Round of 16 for the first time, after a 1-1 draw through extra time. Match Turning Points: Emam Ashour scored early (13th minute), but Mohamed Hany’s own goal leveled it in the 55th, with Egypt then going perfect in the shootout as Australia missed two spot-kicks. Next Up: Egypt will face either Argentina or Cape Verde in the last 16. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran’s state mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is drawing major foreign delegations, including Qatar and China, while the US is accused of pressuring countries to stay away. Regional Security: Yemen’s crowds rallied in Sanaa to thank Iran after Iran-linked efforts helped break an 11-year siege on Sanaa airport, as air defenses reportedly intercepted Saudi warplanes. Legal Fallout in Europe: Two Romanian men were jailed in London over an Iran-linked attack on an Iranian journalist, underscoring how the conflict’s reach is spilling into grey-zone violence.

Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran has begun public mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with a six-day state funeral starting in Tehran and spreading to Qom and Iraq before burial in Mashhad on July 9, as officials say millions may attend and security tightens across cities. Regional Power Display: Iranian state media shows senior IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi appearing publicly for the first time in months as Tehran prepares a “show of force,” while Iran warns the US and Israel against any attack during the ceremonies. Hormuz and Oil Markets: As US-Iran talks continue, Iran issues fresh warnings to oil tankers to use approved Strait of Hormuz routes, while Persian Gulf flows recover and oil prices wobble amid hopes for a lasting truce. Bilateral Outreach: Turkey’s vice president Cevdet Yilmaz meets Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran ahead of the funeral, and Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan also attends. Pakistan-Turkey-Iran Links: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif travels to Iran for the funeral, with a stop in Istanbul for talks on trade and regional security. World Cup (Middle East angle): Egypt and Australia set for a Round of 32 clash in Dallas, with Mohamed Salah returning from a hamstring strain.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Iran and the United States wrapped up another round of indirect talks in Doha, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan saying “positive progress” was made and Iran’s deputy foreign minister backing a plan for a communications channel to log MoU violations, while frozen assets remain a sticking point. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s military command warned all tankers must use Tehran-approved routes or face “forceful response,” as UN officials cautioned that renewed US-Iran confrontations could push the region back toward full-scale conflict. Gulf Security Clash at the UN: Bahrain accused Iran of 808 attacks on civilian infrastructure and urged accountability at an emergency UN Security Council session, while Iran’s UN ambassador said the meeting risked undermining fragile talks. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif is set to attend Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran and then visit Türkiye, as Iran prepares mass mourning across multiple cities. Israel’s Threat Concerns: A report says US officials feared Israel could try to assassinate Iran’s top negotiators during the ceasefire talks, prompting warnings to regional partners. Egypt-Australia World Cup: Egypt’s Mohamed Salah is a doubt with a hamstring issue ahead of their Round of 32 clash with Australia in Dallas. Turkey Domestic/Regional: Turkey blocked a US LGBTQ+ cruise from docking, citing “moral standards,” and Armenia’s Pashinyan said work is underway to open a northern Armenia freight highway linking Azerbaijan to Türkiye.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: US and Iran held indirect technical talks in Doha on Strait of Hormuz shipping and the Iran-U.S. MoU, with Qatar and Pakistan saying “positive progress,” but no lasting peace yet; mediators say the next round will come after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral processions. Hormuz Pressure on Shipping: Iran’s military command warned all oil tankers to use approved routes or face “forceful response,” while Iran also accused a “foreign” ship of grounding after ignoring its instructions—reportedly tied to Tehran. Oil Market Slide: Oil prices fell for a third straight day as Hormuz risks eased on talk progress, with Brent slipping toward $70 amid oversupply worries. Frozen Funds and MoU Monitoring: Iran says Doha talks covered unfreezing about $6 billion for goods purchases and establishing a communication channel to report MoU violations. Regional Security Fallout: The US considers relocating key operational systems in Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia farther from Iranian missile/drone threats, according to a report. Khamenei Funeral Diplomacy: Malaysia’s Anwar said he regretted missing the funeral; Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif and others are set to attend. Turkey-Iraq Energy: Türkiye said talks with Iraq ahead of the July 27 pipeline agreement expiry focus on extending and improving crude exports. Saudi Food Tender: Saudi Arabia issued a wheat tender for 655,000 tons for Sept–Oct delivery, avoiding Gulf ports affected by the war.

Iran-US Diplomacy in Doha: Indirect technical talks between Washington and Tehran wrapped in Qatar with “positive progress,” while Iran said it will set up a communication channel to report MoU breaches and agreed to use part of $6bn frozen assets for needed goods. Strait of Hormuz Focus: Negotiators concentrated on shipping and Hormuz arrangements, with US officials saying discussions are going well but warning nuclear talks may come later. US-Iran Uncertainty: VP JD Vance said the US won’t return to full combat unless necessary, as Trump framed denuclearisation as “moving along.” US Navy Incident: The US is searching for one missing crew member after an MH-60S Sea Hawk made an emergency water landing in the Arabian Sea. Türkiye at NATO: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said the defense industry will be highlighted at the Ankara NATO summit. Saudi Energy Push: Saudi Arabia prequalified firms for a second round of 12 GWh battery storage projects to boost grid reliability.

US-Iran Diplomacy in Doha: Iran says it will not meet U.S. envoys in Qatar and wants ceasefire terms settled first, while indirect technical talks proceed with Qatari and Pakistani mediation—keeping the future of the MoU and frozen assets uncertain. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran is pushing for formal control and route authority, even as a ship reportedly ran aground after not taking Tehran-approved routing; Oman and others face renewed friction over proposed transit fees. Gulf Security Posture: Kuwait’s cabinet condemned Iranian aggressions and ordered peak readiness, while also freezing unapproved state consulting contracts. Regional Humanitarian/Political Pressure: Türkiye warned UNRWA is under unprecedented political pressure, as it condemned attacks on agency staff and operations. Counterterror Operations: Somalia said joint airstrikes with Türkiye killed dozens of Al Shabab fighters in Lower Shabelle, while Iran deployed special forces to its western borders after attacks on security personnel. Turkey Crackdown Ahead of NATO: Ankara tightened security and arrested hundreds of activists and journalists ahead of the NATO summit.

US-Iran Talks in Doha: U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Qatar, but Qatar says there will be no direct high-level meeting with Iran; Iran also insists it won’t meet Americans in the coming days, pushing talks through mediators while technical teams continue. Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf called the strait Tehran’s “greatest instrument of power,” warning it will not retreat on sovereignty, as disputes over fees and mine clearance keep shipping tense. Frozen Assets: Iran says Doha discussions will focus on releasing frozen assets via Qatar, tying progress to MoU clauses; Qatar similarly says funds are not yet transferred. Lebanon Fallout: A commentary argues Arab states are moving to curb Hezbollah and Iranian influence after a Lebanon framework deal, while Iran says it is working to implement MoU terms tied to Lebanon ceasefire and safe passage. Regional Security: In western Iran’s Paveh, attackers killed two IRGC members, with Tehran blaming Kurdish separatists. Turkic Cooperation: In Azerbaijan, OTS leaders launched a new religious-affairs cooperation mechanism and marked the 100th anniversary of the First Turkological Congress. Turkey-Iraq Trade: Turkish exports to Iraq fell 26.5% in May, underscoring economic pressure amid the wider region’s instability.

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff: The US and Iran agreed to pause attacks and resume talks, but messaging stays messy as Trump says a Doha meeting is set while Tehran denies any direct US negotiations and insists its delegation is only for technical steps under the MoU. Ceasefire pressure: Iran’s acting defense minister warned Tehran will respond “decisively” to any ceasefire violation, after missile/drone strikes on US installations and continued accusations over ship attacks. Hormuz governance fight: Oman’s FM said mine-clearance responsibility lies mainly with Iran, while Iran signals it wants lasting control and even tolling—raising fears for global shipping. Security blow in Iran: Two IRGC members were killed in a shooting in western Iran, with authorities investigating and blaming separatist-linked violence. Diplomacy and politics: Iran’s president defended the negotiating team and reiterated frozen-asset release claims; Germany welcomed the halt as an opportunity for diplomacy. Egypt focus: Cairo stepped up efforts to secure release of Egyptian sailors aboard the hijacked MT Eureka off Somalia. Regional diplomacy: Bahrain filed a UN complaint over Iranian strikes, and the Arab League and Arab Parliament condemned Israeli attacks on Syria. Business/tech: Egypt’s BrainsMingle raised $400,000 seed funding; Qatar and Türkiye advanced satellite cooperation via Es’hailSat and Türksat.

US-Iran De-escalation Talks in Doha: Washington says high-level envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet Iran in Qatar on Tuesday, alongside technical work on the June 17 MoU, but Iran Denies Negotiations in the coming days and says its priority is implementing MoU provisions and releasing frozen assets. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Fresh strikes and tanker disruptions keep shipping jittery as Iran insists it alone can clear mines and manage the waterway, while Oman and Iran push joint governance talks in Muscat. France vs Iran on Demining: Iran rejects Macron’s French-backed plan to jointly demine Hormuz, warning France against “provocations” and saying the framework assigns clearance exclusively to Tehran. Regional Fallout: Israel’s defense minister warns war with Iran could come “as early as tomorrow,” while Lebanon Track remains a flashpoint as Israel and Iran-linked dynamics complicate any broader settlement. Gulf Condolences: Arab states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and the GCC offered condolences to Qatar after a Qatari citizen was killed by shrapnel from regional military operations.

US-Iran De-escalation: The US and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other “for now” and will meet Tuesday in Qatar to settle their Strait of Hormuz dispute, with technical talks continuing and officials saying vessels can move freely. Frozen Funds in Focus: Iran’s president says $6B of $12B held in Qatar will be released to Tehran, as the interim deal faces new strain after weekend attacks. Hormuz Governance Talks: Iran and Oman held the first joint committee meeting in Muscat on future Strait management under Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU, as coastal-state rights and shipping security stay central. Regional Fallout: Bahrain urged the UN Security Council to hold Iran accountable over drone attacks, calling them a sovereignty violation; Iran also reported cyber escalation against Israel. Markets & Energy Mood: Indian stocks slid on renewed West Asia tensions, while oil and shipping sentiment tracked the fragile US-Iran pause. Turkey Energy Push: Türkiye ranked Europe’s No.2 in hydropower capacity, underscoring continued regional energy investment. Security Angle Beyond the Gulf: Mumbai police probe a foiled Muharram poisoning plot, including alleged Iran-Iraq digital links.

US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain: The US and Iran agreed to pause “kinetic activity” and meet in Doha Tuesday to settle their Strait of Hormuz dispute, after days of tit-for-tat strikes that both sides blamed on ceasefire violations. Hormuz Shipping Tensions: Iran says it controls the strait for the next 30 days and warns against interference, while the US says vessels can move freely and vows further action if shipping is threatened. Gulf Condemnations: Bahrain and Kuwait denounced renewed Iranian drone and missile attacks, with the GCC calling them treacherous and warning of wider regional risk. Diplomacy in Baghdad: Iraq urged dialogue after the Iran-US MoU, as Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi met Iraqi leaders to coordinate on stability and sovereignty. World Cup Fallout: Iran’s unbeaten group run ended as Austria’s late equaliser eliminated them; the team also accused FIFA of unfair visa treatment. Saudi Crash: An Aramco helicopter crash in Ras Tanura killed 14, prompting condolences from Pakistan and Saudi officials. Egypt Economy: Egypt approved preliminary listings for four state firms ahead of privatization, including petroleum-related companies.

Gulf Flashpoint: Iran and the US traded fresh strikes as a fragile ceasefire frayed over the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington hitting Iranian missile/drone storage, radar and air-defense sites after a tanker attack, and Tehran retaliating by claiming missile and drone strikes on US-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Regional Condemnations: The GCC, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait all condemned the attacks as violations of sovereignty and international law, while Bahrain said it intercepted and destroyed Iranian missiles and drones and reported damage to a residential building. Hormuz Control Dispute: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will manage and reopen Hormuz under its oversight for the next 30 days, warning against outside interference and alternative routing. Diplomacy Under Strain: Talks aimed at a lasting end to the war remain in doubt as both sides accuse each other of breaking the MoU, with Iraq hosting Araghchi’s meetings. Business & Industry: Egypt’s Korra Energi won a contract for a GennVax vaccine plant in the Suez Canal zone, while Egypt and Afreximbank discussed expanding startup and trade support. Sports Side Note: Iran’s World Cup run ended after VAR ruled out a late winner vs Egypt, sparking captain Mehdi Taremi’s sharp criticism of FIFA.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. carried out more strikes on Iran, saying it targeted surveillance, communications, air defenses, drone storage and minelayer capabilities after a one-way drone hit the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran reported explosions near Sirik and accused Washington of violating the ceasefire memorandum. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM and foreign minister stressed dialogue and freedom of navigation in Hormuz in calls with Saudi and Egypt, while Saudi, Egypt and Qatar condemned attacks on Bahrain and threats to maritime routes. Ceasefire Strain: Iran’s officials warned the U.S. breached the MoU and vowed “swift and crushing” response, as Bahrain reported drone attacks and shipping incidents kept the agreement under pressure. Arab Parliament: The 8th Arab Parliament conference in Cairo praised Qatar and Pakistan’s mediation role and backed decisions on Palestinian support and Arab digital sovereignty. Iran Economy: Fitch said Egypt’s current account deficit may widen to about 4% of GDP, while Iran’s inflation hit 88.6% year-on-year amid war fallout. World Cup Fallout: In Seattle, Iran’s 1-1 draw with Egypt ended knockout hopes after a late offside VAR call; Mehdi Taremi blasted FIFA over “unfair” treatment and logistics, while Iran left a viral “honor above victory” note.